{"id":2008,"date":"2026-05-31T13:06:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-31T13:06:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/raleighmovingnews.com\/?p=2008"},"modified":"2026-05-31T13:06:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-31T13:06:22","slug":"concerns-mount-that-belarus-could-be-a-launchpad-for-a-new-russian-offensive-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/raleighmovingnews.com\/?p=2008","title":{"rendered":"Concerns mount that Belarus could be a launchpad for a new Russian offensive in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Over four years ago, Belarus\u2019 authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko allowed longtime ally Russia to use his territory to invade Ukraine. Now officials in Kyiv are warning that Lukashenko could again allow his land to serve as a launchpad for more attacks by the Kremlin\u2019s forces.<\/p>\n

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While Belarus has not contributed troops to battle, Lukashenko has backed President Vladimir Putin\u2019s war effort by hosting Russia\u2019s nuclear weapons and military infrastructure, as well as producing components for Moscow\u2019s military industries. Earlier this month, the countries held joint drills of nuclear forces involving Russian weapons deployed in Belarus.<\/p>\n

Lukashenko, in power for over three decades, has ruled the nation of 9.5 million with an iron fist, relentlessly cracking down on dissent and relying on its close ties with Russia, as well as subsidies from the Kremlin\u2019s coffers, to counteract repeated Western sanctions.<\/p>\n

Military cooperation between Moscow and Minsk is increasingly worrying Ukraine\u2019s allies.<\/p>\n

Belarus\u2019 role in Ukraine<\/h3>\n

When Putin began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Russian troops that gathered in Belarus under the guise of drills dashed toward Kyiv, only about 90 kilometers (56 miles) south of the border.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s hope of capturing Kyiv quickly was shattered by staunch Ukrainian resistance, and convoys of Russian tanks stretching along narrow roads became easy prey.<\/p>\n

A little over a month after the invasion, Russian troops that suffered heavy losses and struggled to maintain their supply lines pulled back from Kyiv and other areas they captured in northeastern Ukraine in what the Kremlin cast as a \u201cgoodwill gesture.\u201d<\/p>\n

When Moscow tried to negotiate a quick end to the conflict weeks after its start, Belarus hosted the first talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations. The talks moved to Istanbul but failed to produce a deal.<\/p>\n

As the conflict became a war of attrition, Belarus has played a key role in supporting Moscow\u2019s war effort. Belarusian plants have produced important components, including microchips and other electronics, optical guidance systems, artillery munitions and heavy trucks that carry Russian ballistic missiles.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s presidential envoy on sanctions policy, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, said fragments of an Oreshnik ballistic missile that Russia fired at Ukraine on May 24 contained microchips from Belarus. He urged Western allies to tighten sanctions enforcement against Belarus.<\/p>\n

Belarus also provided training grounds for Moscow\u2019s troops, hosted joint drills and offered its hospitals to treat wounded Russian soldiers.<\/p>\n

BELPOL, a group of former military and law enforcement officers who oppose Lukashenko, said the Belarusian industries have effectively been integrated into the Kremlin\u2019s war machine. It says that over 500 Belarusian industrial plants are involved in manufacturing weapons and ammunition, repairing military equipment and providing logistics.<\/p>\n

\u201cLukashenko\u2019s regime is quite seriously involved in the war,\u201d BELPOL head Uladzimir Zhyhar told The Associated Press. \u201cLukashenko is helping Russia in every way he can.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the Gomel region that borders Ukraine, construction has begun of a big firing range and barracks for large numbers of troops, Zhyhar said. Ukraine has been forced to maintain many forces at the border with Belarus, he added, keeping them from fighting Russian troops along the more than 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line.<\/p>\n

Under Russia\u2019s nuclear umbrella<\/h3>\n

Belarus, which also borders NATO members Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, has hosted some of Russia\u2019s tactical nuclear weapons. In December, Russia announced that its latest intermediate range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system entered service in Belarus.<\/p>\n

Russia has used a conventionally armed version of the Oreshnik to strike facilities in Ukraine three times \u2014 in November 2024 and then again in January and earlier this month.<\/p>\n

In 2024, the Kremlin revised its nuclear doctrine, placing Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella. Putin has said that Moscow will retain control of its nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus but would allow its ally to select the targets in case of conflict.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, Russia and Belarus held massive drills that included the delivery of nuclear warheads to missile units and launch preparations. As part of the exercise, a Belarusian missile crew test-fired a nuclear-capable Iskander missile from a range in southern Russia.<\/p>\n

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\u201cBelarus lacks military sovereignty, and as soon as Moscow sees it as necessary for its strategy, Moscow will naturally use Belarus as a launchpad for a new invasion of Ukraine or some kind of armed conflict with NATO countries,\u201d Zhyhar said, noting that Belarus offers a \u201cvery convenient springboard\u201d for such an invasion.<\/p>\n

Zelenskyy warns of an attack from Belarus<\/h3>\n

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his intelligence services had learned Moscow recently stepped-up efforts to \u201cdraw Belarus much deeper into the war and launch additional aggressive operations precisely from Belarusian territory.\u201d He said the target could be along the Chernihiv-Kyiv area or against a NATO country bordering Belarus.<\/p>\n

Zelenskyy said he ordered the military and security agencies to prepare a response and strengthen northern defenses.<\/p>\n

Lukashenko has denied any aggressive plans, declaring Belarus will not enter the conflict unless attacked.<\/p>\n

Sergei Shoigu, Russia\u2019s former defense minister and now secretary of its Security Council, also rejected Zelenskyy\u2019s claim, describing it as a scare tactic to attract more Western aid for Kyiv.<\/p>\n

But in a sign of growing Western concern, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Lukashenko on May 24 to underscore the risks for Belarus of being dragged into the war, their first call since the invasion began. Lukashenko said that next week he will host a French envoy for talks on European security and prospects of easing EU sanctions.<\/p>\n

Andrii Demchenko, a spokesman for Ukraine\u2019s Border Guard Service, said last week that while intelligence data indicate that Russia has increasingly pressured Belarus to directly enter the war, Ukrainian forces haven\u2019t yet spotted any buildup of troops and weapons near the border.<\/p>\n

Belarus\u2019 opposition leader-in-exile, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, visited Kyiv last week and emphasized that \u201cBelarus must never again become a springboard for aggression.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRussian tanks must never again march through Belarus to Chernihiv, Zhitomir, Rivne, or Kyiv,\u201d Tsikhanouskaya told AP. \u201cUkraine is fighting for itself and for all the peoples who have lived in the shadow of empire for too long. It is fighting for the right to live in peace. And the fate of my country, Belarus, also depends on Ukraine\u2019s success.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to official data, Belarus\u2019 armed forces have 48,600 troops, a tiny force compared with Russia\u2019s 1.5 million. In case of war, Belarus is prepared to mobilize 290,000, but they would need weapons and training to become combat-ready.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Belarusian army is unfit for offensive action,\u201d said Alexander Alesin, a Minsk-based military analyst. \u201cAn attack from Belarus would require \u2026 mobilizing up to 500,000 troops.\u201d<\/p>\n

That would mean taking all the men from the national economy and then finding arms for them, he said, adding: \u201cI consider this option unlikely.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ukraine has built heavy fortifications on the border with Belarus and planted mines that would easily stymie any attempted incursion, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven with a small force, the Ukrainians can easily defend themselves and inflict heavy losses on the Belarusian army,\u201d Alesin said. \u201cFrom a military perspective, it\u2019s impossible to launch an attack from Belarusian territory without suffering heavy losses.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lukashenko is comfortable with Belarus\u2019 position as a key supplier of military equipment and would strongly oppose direct involvement in the war, he added.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe last thing Lukashenko wants is to fight, and he\u2019ll cling to his current position at any cost, so he can avoid fighting while profiting handsomely from the war,\u201d Alesin said.<\/p>\n

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