{"id":334,"date":"2026-05-14T19:03:58","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T19:03:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/raleighmovingnews.com\/?p=334"},"modified":"2026-05-14T19:03:58","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T19:03:58","slug":"chance-of-a-super-el-nino-grows-and-its-just-around-the-corner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/raleighmovingnews.com\/?p=334","title":{"rendered":"Chance of a \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o grows \u2013 and it\u2019s just around the corner"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

(NEXSTAR) \u2014\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o is waiting in the wings. An updated forecast released by the National Weather Service on Thursday gave the climate phenomenon an 82% chance of taking over at some point between May and July.\u00a0<\/p>

Read more Former Kansas mayor turns himself in at Wichita ICE office<\/a><\/p>\n

As the year goes on, the odds of an El Ni\u00f1o grow even higher. National forecasters say there\u2019s a 96% chance of El Ni\u00f1o lasting through the winter, the season when it typically reaches peak strength.<\/p>\n

As we wait for El Ni\u00f1o to officially begin, anticipation is building that we may see what\u2019s called a \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Very strong \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1os are rare. There have only been four since 1950, with the last one occurring from 2015 to 2016.<\/p>\n

The chance of seeing a super El Ni\u00f1o in 2026 has grown since last month\u2019s climate update. There\u2019s about a 35% probability the El Ni\u00f1o late this year will be \u201cvery strong,\u201d a 25% chance it\u2019ll be categorized as \u201cstrong\u201d and about a 20% chance it will be \u201cmoderate.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n
A chart from the Climate Prediction Center shows the chances of different strength possibilities for this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o. In the November 2026 to January 2027 period, the chance of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o is highest. (Climate Prediction Center)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There\u2019s an even smaller probability it will be \u201cweak\u201d or not form at all.\u00a0<\/p>\n

How strong the El Ni\u00f1o ends up being is determined by sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. The warmer the water, the stronger the El Ni\u00f1o.\u00a0<\/p>

Read more Juan Soto returns to lineup for Mets, who also get a positive progress report on Francisco Lindor<\/a><\/p>\n

What would a super El Ni\u00f1o look like?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A super El Ni\u00f1o doesn\u2019t automatically mean crazy storms or dangerous heat waves.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s actually a big misconception about what a \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o would mean. \u201cStronger El Ni\u00f1o events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely,\u201d the Climate Prediction Center said Thursday.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Essentially, it\u2019s looking increasingly likely we\u2019ll see the signature El Ni\u00f1o impacts, which include warm, dry winter weather in the northern half of the country, and a wetter, colder winter for the Southern states.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n
(Credit: Climate.gov)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n

If El Ni\u00f1o starts in the summer, as it\u2019s predicted to, it could also turbo-charge summer temperatures and contribute to heat waves.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A strong El Ni\u00f1o also could mean an especially quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic, but a stronger tropical storm season on the Pacific side.<\/p>

Read more Saudi Arabia continues its soccer push with a World Cup deal, even after pulling out of LIV Golf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Ni\u00f1o is waiting in the wings. An updated forecast released by the National Weather Service on Thursday gave the climate phenomenon an 82% chance of taking over at some point between May and July.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":331,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nChance of a \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o grows \u2013 and it\u2019s just around the corner - Raleigh Moving News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/raleighmovingnews.com\/?p=334\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chance of a \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o grows \u2013 and it\u2019s just around the corner - Raleigh Moving News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El Ni\u00f1o is waiting in the wings. 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