By admin 
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.
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Forecasters are calling for 8-14 named storms, including 3-6 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes.
NOAA said there’s a 55% chance of a below-average season, a 35% chance of a near-average season and a 10% chance of an above-average season.
That forecast is slightly below the historical average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in a typical Atlantic hurricane season. In 2025, the Atlantic Basin recorded 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA’s outlook comes nearly one month after North Carolina State University released its own hurricane season forecast in late April.
The major factor driving many outlooks toward an average or slightly below-average season is a strengthening El Niño pattern in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Forecasts call for a very strong — if not “super” — El Niño, which is defined by sea surface temperatures in the region climbing more than 2 degrees Celsius above average.
With a strong El Niño in place, forecasters typically expect increased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic Basin, which can make it more difficult for tropical systems to develop and strengthen. That’s the primary reasoning behind many of this year’s predictions.
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The most recent tropical storm to make landfall in North Carolina was Ophelia in 2023. The last hurricane to make landfall in the state was Isaias in 2020.
To find the most recent major hurricane — Category 3 or stronger — to strike North Carolina, you have to go back exactly 30 years to Hurricane Fran in 1996.
While it’s been some time since North Carolina experienced a direct tropical storm or hurricane landfall, even remnant systems can bring devastating flooding and tornadoes, as seen with Helene and Chantal.
It only takes one storm — whether it makes landfall or not — to turn an otherwise quiet season into one that’s remembered for years.
Hurricane season officially begins in 11 days on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. However, tropical activity can develop before or very early in the season, with the first named storm forming in June during each of the past four years.
The CBS 17 Storm Team will work throughout the season to keep you and your family informed and prepared for whatever comes our way.
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