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RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, is projected to see below-normal to near-average activity due to a developing moderate-to-strong El Niño.
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Leading meteorology institutions, including NOAA, Colorado State University (CSU), and North Carolina State University (NCSU), predict between 8 and 15 named storms, 3 to 9 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.
This Pacific climate pattern creates strong vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and Atlantic, a phenomenon that physically disrupts and rips apart developing tropical disturbances before they can mature into powerful cyclones.
Forecasters frequently look to 2015, an historic “Super El Niño” year, as a primary analogue for how this season will behave, particularly for its unique impacts on Central North Carolina.
During strong El Niño setups, a shifted jet stream frequently funnels deep tropical moisture straight out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Piedmont region. This means that even if the Atlantic basin remains quiet overall, a tropical system can still threaten Central NC. Stalled systems offshore or even a weak system like Chantal can still bring significant impacts to the area.
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The CBS 17 Storm Team warns against letting your guard down during a predicted “down year,” pointing to historical anomalies like 1992’s Hurricane Andrew, which struck Florida as a Category 5 monster during a highly suppressed season.
To help residents better track these complex threats, the National Hurricane Center is introducing an updated forecast cone this year that visually integrates inland tropical storm and hurricane alerts directly onto the graphic.
Stay ahead of the storms as we move through the 2026 hurricane season by keeping up with the latest forecast. Make sure to have your kits and plans ready before a storm approaches.
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