By admin 
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its mid-season hurricane forecast update Thursday, and they continue to predict a below-normal season.
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The number of named storms has been reduced slightly to between seven and 13, while the number of hurricanes has been dropped to between two and six. As far as major hurricanes, there could be no major hurricanes — or up to two.
The season has a 75 percent probability of being below normal. A normal season in the Atlantic Basin would see 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The last time we had a hurricane season with a forecast of storms between seven and 13 was 2015, when 12 storms formed. Of those, eight were tropical depressions or tropical storms, four were hurricanes, and of those, two became major hurricanes: Danny and Joaquin.
Other years to have a forecast of storms within that range: 2014 and 1997 (nine total storms), 2006 (10 total storms), and 2009 (11 total storms).
Only two systems have formed so far: tropical storms Arthur and Bertha, both in the Gulf.
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Tropical development across the Atlantic Basin continues to be influenced by El Niño, which increases wind shear that can tear apart or weaken developing systems. In addition to wind shear due to El Niño, water temperatures across the main development region of the Atlantic Ocean (the area from the west coast of Africa west toward the southeastern United States) are near average.
While average water temperatures would be enough for tropical development, with the addition of wind shear, the environment is not as favorable as it would be without the shear.
With that being said, the waters in the Gulf are still warmer than average, making this an area to watch for development over the remainder of the season.
The peak of hurricane season does not happen until September 10, meaning there is still plenty of time for a tropical storm or hurricane to develop, and while the season is expected to be below normal, that doesn’t mean we should let our guard down.
It only takes one storm, of any strength, to bring major impacts. The CBS17 Storm Team will keep you updated with anything that is set to develop, but as of the first week of August, nothing is expected to develop within the next week.
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