North Carolina’s drought situation and seasonal outlook

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The latest Drought Monitor update shows drought conditions continuing to worsen across parts of North Carolina.

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After a very dry stretch, severe drought remains in place across much of central North Carolina, with extreme drought and even pockets of exceptional drought returning across portions of the Triad. Abnormally dry conditions have also expanded back into the Piedmont and western North Carolina.

For much of central North Carolina, the latest update did not show a dramatic change in the overall drought category. Instead, some of the gaps between areas of drought were filled in as the dry pattern continued. That is an indication that the lack of rainfall is becoming more widespread, even though the most severe areas have not necessarily worsened significantly from week to week.

The good news is that there are signs of a pattern change ahead. As we move deeper into fall, El Niño is expected to become increasingly influential across the United States.

El Niño typically favors a wetter pattern across the southern United States, including the Southeast, as the jet stream becomes more active across the region. That could bring more frequent opportunities for rainfall and eventually provide some meaningful drought relief.

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However, that relief is unlikely to happen immediately. For the rest of September, drought conditions will likely persist, and another stretch of below-normal rainfall could allow some areas to worsen.

There are signs that a wetter pattern could begin developing toward the end of the month and continue into October, which would be a welcome change after the recent dry weather.

As we head deeper into fall and eventually winter, the El Niño pattern should become a much bigger influence on our weather. That increases the potential for a wetter stretch across the Southeast and gives us a better opportunity to gradually chip away at the drought.

The key will be whether the rainfall becomes frequent enough to make up for the significant deficits that have built up over the past several weeks.

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