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Cristobal is no more. The short-lived tropical system has met the same fate as several other systems this season, with strong wind shear preventing it from becoming a longer-lived or more organized storm.
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Once again, shear and dry air are proving to be major obstacles across the Atlantic. That doesn’t mean we’re done watching the tropics. Two tropical waves, 92L and 94L, are now getting our attention, although neither system is an immediate threat to the United States. There are reasons to watch both, but there are also plenty of reasons why neither may amount to much.
92L: The Better Short-Term Chance
92L currently has the better potential for development in the near term. The wave is moving west to west-northwest across the central tropical Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles. Warm ocean temperatures, adequate moisture, and some upper-level ventilation are providing the ingredients needed for thunderstorms to become better organized.
The National Hurricane Center has assigned 92L a moderate chance of becoming a tropical depression, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. The system has a long journey ahead before reaching the Caribbean, and the environment is expected to become increasingly hostile as it moves west. Increasing wind shear and pockets of drier air could disrupt the circulation and prevent the system from becoming better organized.
The system also needs to develop a more concentrated low-level circulation. Without that, it may remain a broad tropical wave rather than becoming a tropical cyclone. The most likely track takes 92L generally west to west-northwest toward the Lesser Antilles this weekend, followed by a move into or near the northeastern Caribbean.
What happens after that is much less certain. The surrounding atmospheric pattern will be critical. If shear increases as expected, the system could weaken considerably or even fall apart altogether. It is entirely possible we never see 92L become a named tropical system.
94L: The Long-Range System to Watch
While 92L has the better chance in the short term, 94L is the more interesting system farther down the road. 94L is farther east, south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and currently has a lower probability of immediate development.
However, its location gives it something 92L doesn’t have: time and open ocean. The wave will have a large area of very warm water ahead of it as it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. If thunderstorms become more persistent and the wave can develop a well-defined low-level circulation, organization could gradually increase.
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The challenge is that conditions will change considerably as 94L moves west. Dry air and increasing wind shear could prevent the system from becoming organized, particularly if it remains a broad wave without a defined center.
There is also an important relationship between strength and track. A weak tropical wave is more likely to remain farther south and continue generally westward beneath the subtropical ridge. If 94L becomes stronger and develops a deeper circulation, it could potentially be steered farther north by the surrounding atmospheric pattern.
That is why it is much too early to draw a line from 94L toward the United States. There is simply too much uncertainty in both the eventual strength and steering pattern.
So, What’s Most Likely?
For now, 92L is the system with the better short-term opportunity for development, but it also faces increasing environmental obstacles as it approaches the Caribbean. A tropical depression or tropical storm is possible, but weakening or dissipation is also very much on the table.
94L is the system to watch over the next week. It has more time over open water and could gradually become better organized, but development is far from guaranteed. Dry air and wind shear remain two significant obstacles. Neither system currently provides a reason to forecast a specific U.S. landfall. For now, these are talking points rather than a specific threat to the mainland United States.
The big takeaway is that the Atlantic is becoming more active, but shear and dry air remain firmly in control for now. We’ll continue watching both waves as they move west and look for signs that the environment is becoming more supportive or more hostile for tropical development.
For now, we’re in watch-and-see mode. The tropics deserve attention, but there is no reason for alarm.
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